The maritime industry is a critical component of the global economy, responsible for transporting around 80% of global trade. With global trade expected to grow significantly over the next decade owing to the rise of the global middle class, the maritime industry is expected to play a significant role in facilitating that growth in a sustainable, efficient, and effective manner.

1.Global trade expansion:

The world's population continues to grow, and with it, so does demand for goods and services. Global trade is expected to continue to expand over the next decade, driven by increasing demand for consumer goods, energy, and raw materials.

According to various projections, global trade is expected to grow at an average annual rate of between 2.5% and 4.0% over the next decade.

For example, the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasted in its April 2021 report that the volume of world merchandise trade would increase by 8.0% in 2021 after falling 5.3% in 2020 due to the pandemic, and is projected to grow by 4.0% in 2022. Over the longer term, the WTO estimates that global trade will grow by an average of 3.3% per year between 2023 and 2030.

Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected in its October 2021 World Economic Outlook report that global trade volume would increase by 2.6% in 2021, and by an average of 3.7% per year between 2022 and 2026.

These projections suggest that global trade is expected to continue to grow steadily over the next decade, driven by factors such as expanding middle classes in emerging economies, technological advancements, and the growth of e-commerce. However, uncertainties such as black swan events like COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions could also affect the rate of growth of the global trade industry.

2.Growth of the Middle Class:

The global middle class is expected to continue to grow over the next decade, driven by economic growth and rising incomes in emerging economies. According to various projections, the global middle class is expected to grow by between 1.8 billion and 3 billion people by 2030.

For example, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projected in its 2020 report that the global middle class would grow from 1.8 billion in 2019 to 4.9 billion in 2030, driven by growth in Asia, particularly in China and India.

Similarly, the Brookings Institution projected in its 2017 report that the global middle class would grow from 3.2 billion in 2016 to 4.9 billion in 2030, with the largest growth expected in Asia and Africa.

These projections suggest that the global middle class is expected to continue to expand rapidly over the next decade, which is likely to drive increased demand for consumer goods and services, energy, and raw materials, which will need to be transported by sea. This is expected to drive growth in the maritime industry and global trade, as well as providing opportunities for businesses that cater to the needs of the growing middle class.

3.Infrastructure investment:

Investment in port infrastructure and shipping lanes is expected to continue over the next decade, particularly in emerging markets. These investments are generally funnelled into areas such as port expansion and modernization, terminal automation, offshore infrastructure, and channel deepening to accommodate larger ships. All of these will help to improve efficiency and reduce costs, making shipping a more attractive option for businesses and consumers.

In a nutshell, the maritime industry is expected to continue to play a vital role in the global economy over the next decade, driven by expanding trade, emerging markets, technological advancements, environmental concerns, and infrastructure investment, and will certainly remain as a key industry that drives the global economy.